While everyone knows not to count chickens before they hatch, it would require an epic, nearly unprecedented turn of events for Democrat Creigh Deeds to defeat Republican Bob McDonnell in the Virginia governor’s race. Most polling indicates McDonnell’s margin of victory will be in the double digits; his average lead on Pollster.com is 13 points.

So beyond McDonnell, what should Republicans look for on Election Night in Virginia?

First, the Republicans running for lieutenant governor (incumbent Bill Bolling) and attorney general (Ken Cuccinelli) should win by margins comparable to McDonnell’s. In recent days, McDonnell has transferred cash to Bill Bolling’s campaign and recorded a robo-call for Bolling. Democrats tell Virginia’s political reporters that their lieutenant gubernatorial candidate, Jody Wagner, is their best shot in a statewide race; that “best shot” is down 13 in the most recent poll.

In the D.C. market, television ads for the attorney general’s race are almost as ubiquitous as those for the top of the ticket. Neither candidate’s commercials mention party affiliation — a signal that this is still a purple state — and Democrat Steve Shannon’s mailers feature a young boy praying that someone protects him from criminals. But the latest poll puts Cuccinelli up 15 on Shannon, and Republicans statewide speak about Cuccinelli’s turnout operation with a combination of admiration and envy.

The Virginia state-delegate races are where things really get interesting. State senators serve four-year terms and are not up for reelection, but Republicans now hold 53 house seats, Democrats hold 45, and two independents generally vote with the Republicans. Democrats control the state senate, and once hoped to take control of the house.

That’s not going to happen. GOP sources say the party has challengers within the margin of error or better against Democratic incumbents in eleven races, whereas they’re worried about only one or two of their own incumbents. That math suggests that a gain of nine seats is not unthinkable, a scenario that seems to grow more plausible as McDonnell’s lead grows. Most put the number of gained seats between three and eight, with a best-case scenario of 11 seats gained.

Here’s a selection of some of the competitive and likely-to-flip seats:

In Fairfax County, a seat that includes the wealthy community of McLean features Republican Barbara Comstock, a candidate NRO readers are likely to be familiar with. One Republican in the know who’s following the delegate races closely calls her “the best and brightest candidate we could possibly get. . . . She’s the kind of candidate who has a good shot in a normal year; if McDonnell is winning big, she should cruise.” This Republican notes that the delegate Comstock seeks to unseat, Margaret G. Vanderhye, is heavily financed by unions and Democratic organizations: “You’ll notice regular people don’t donate to her that much.”

Another Fairfax County district pits Republican Kerry Bolognese against Democrat Dave Marsden. This is one of those Democrat-held districts that require a big Republican wave for a takeover, and the cresting momentum for the GOP might just be enough. Bolognese is already putting up signs tying his race to McDonnell’s. “Our candidates are latching on to Bob McDonnell,” notes the Republican tracking the races. “All of our candidates want to be joined at the hip with him. You can’t say that for the Democratic side.”

A little farther west, in a district that includes Chantilly and Dulles Airport, Jim LeMunyon has run a classic grassroots campaign, knocking on more than 10,000 doors and walking more than 500 miles. He’s hitting his opponent, Democrat Chuck Caputo, for missing 15 important votes over the course of the current session.

A little ways south, in a district encompassing parts of Woodbridge and Occoquan, retired Air Force veteran Rich Anderson could go over the top, but he’ll need a bit of McDonnell-fueled momentum to do it.

A bit farther west, in Lynchburg, Scott Garrett may seem like a familiar name, but he’s a different guy than the New Jersey congressman. He’s a city councilman who’s been endorsed by the NRA.

In Virginia Beach, Republican Chris Stolle is up for a rematch with the man who won his seat in 2007, Democrat Joseph Bouchard. Bouchard is on television and going negative, not the sign of a confident incumbent. “We’re thinking that’s a pickup,” said one Republican watching the race closely, noting that Bob McDonnell should do particularly well in this area, as he represented it in the state legislature.

Also in Virginia Beach, freshman Democrat Bobby Mathieson is trying to earn a second term in the 21st house district, and is pressed hard by City Councilman Ron Villanueva. The race would probably look different without the turnout spike that a high-flying gubernatorial nominee with roots in the area will bring.

 Republican Will Morefield takes on Democrat Dan Bowling in Southwest Virginia’s Buchanan County, where coal is a big issue. Deeds’s waffling on cap-and-trade has hurt the Democratic brand here, and Morefield has been outraising his opponent.

In Hampton Roads, Republican Stan Clark would be competitive even in an average year. Democrat Bill Barlow, age 73, has represented the area since 1992, and it seems like his involuntary retirement is approaching.

 In Arlington, Republican Aaron Ringel’s campaign is distributing “parking tickets” that cite Delegate Bob Brink for “failure to deliver transportation funding.” Cute? Irritating? Either way, it seems a lot of Arlington drivers will probably be relieved to know they don’t have real parking tickets, and will know something about the incumbent. (For better or worse, Ringel is endorsed by the Washington Post; we can see how much that helped Deeds.)